Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.509657 1.576113 1.645220 1.722698 1.807443 1.897670 2.001461
2026-01-11 1.428333 1.516500 1.611252 1.721378 1.846802 1.986387 2.155192
2026-01-18 1.372882 1.476028 1.589671 1.725515 1.885350 2.069932 2.303102
2026-01-25 1.307928 1.418829 1.543230 1.695042 1.878113 2.095707 2.380411
2026-02-01 1.264804 1.383082 1.517924 1.685640 1.892617 2.145535 2.488214
2026-02-08 1.226126 1.349869 1.492896 1.673736 1.901492 2.186828 2.586144
2026-02-15 1.191147 1.318990 1.468525 1.660337 1.906327 2.221585 2.676340
2026-02-22 1.168768 1.301841 1.459395 1.664525 1.932646 2.284727 2.809827
2026-03-01 1.130935 1.264379 1.423592 1.632867 1.909806 2.279359 2.843101
2026-03-08 1.101057 1.235528 1.397204 1.611768 1.899303 2.289421 2.898866
2026-03-15 1.077246 1.213279 1.378103 1.598985 1.898826 2.312719 2.975843
2026-03-22 1.070370 1.211652 1.384665 1.619684 1.944567 2.404273 3.168736
2026-03-29 1.063966 1.210831 1.392717 1.643399 1.996859 2.510978 3.403371
2026-04-05 1.046365 1.195192 1.380953 1.639601 2.009469 2.558346 3.542224
2026-04-12 1.032393 1.183685 1.374048 1.641921 2.030695 2.620117 3.714729
2026-04-19 1.006803 1.156549 1.345735 1.613396 2.004843 2.605003 3.740867
2026-04-26 0.990270 1.140681 1.331833 1.604404 2.007512 2.635886 3.859647
2026-05-03 0.973783 1.124442 1.316919 1.593329 2.006290 2.659935 3.967718
2026-05-10 0.957617 1.108225 1.301560 1.580994 2.002393 2.678942 4.067722
2026-05-17 0.948309 1.100721 1.297632 1.584735 2.023265 2.741346 4.270238
2026-05-24 0.927367 1.077445 1.271745 1.555845 1.991607 2.709826 4.257991
2026-05-31 0.910718 1.059555 1.252823 1.536571 1.974429 2.702981 4.302209
2026-06-07 0.897449 1.045897 1.239377 1.524885 1.968813 2.716392 4.396257